CCIV Stock Price Forecast Should You Buy CCIV?

Опубликовано Алекс Мар 30, 2022 |

The Churchill Capital Corp IV stock holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $24.73. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $23.54. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, June 30, 2021, and so far it has fallen -15.09%.

If Churchill Capital Corp IV takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 12.62% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day. As a newly launched vehicle and so-called “black cheque stock” there is not a lot of history for CCIV share price. Lucid Motors is backed by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund and as we have seen Churchill Capital founder Michael Klein has multiple high-level contacts in Saudi, having advised the Saudi fund already.

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These infrastructure mean that where the sub-fund of a CCIV does not qualify as an AMIT, it may be taxed on a different basis to a managed investment scheme in similar circumstances. Namely, for the managed investment scheme, the constitution or trust deed would generally determine a beneficiary’s present entitlement to income of the trust. At this stage, only a retail CCIV with a single sub-fund or sub-fund of a retail CCIV which only has that one sub-fund may be included in the official list of a prescribed financial market in Australia. In earlier iterations of the Bill, we have made submissions that, in the same way that the requirement to lodge a constitution does not apply to propriety companies, the requirement to lodge a constitution should be restricted to retail CCIVs. Unfortunately, this has not been adopted and may hinder adoption of the CCIV model amongst fund managers who operate wholesale MISs.

While all EV stocks have dropped, CCIV has dropped more than others. This is mainly due to the irrational exuberance in CCIV stock even before the merger was announced. The stock went as high as $65 before the merger and the only way it could have continued to rise after the merger announcement was the acquisition of Lucid Motors at very low valuations. After a barrage of rallying calls and Tweets from Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson and CCIV chairman Michael Klein, institutional and retail shareholders exercised their right to vote, resulting in a 98% approval. Mere days after the merger was initially confirmed, Lucid announced a delay to the flagship Dream Edition trim of the Air sedan, which was originally scheduled to begin deliveries this past spring.

• Lucid has just made public via Twitter that European deliveries will be in late 2021.
• The complexity of integrating a new type of company that effectively has hybrid company and MIS-like features into an existing regulatory landscape was evident in the submissions that were received during the consultation period.
• A CCIV’s PDS will generally be subject to the same content requirements that apply to the PDS for other financial products.
• A sub-fund may cross-invest (ie acquire shares in another sub-fund in the same CCIV) and a single asset may be allocated across multiple sub-funds, in each case subject to certain conditions.

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Although the CCIV structure is a new one for Australian fund managers, foreign CCIVs have been offered to Australian wholesale investors for some time by foreign fund managers. Holley Nethercote Lawyers are well experienced in assisting with the licensing of fund managers and the registration of investment funds. Amendments to tax legislation will ensure that the tax treatment of CCIVs aligns with the existing treatment of attribution managed investment trusts , providing investors with the benefits of “flow-through” taxation on a sub-fund basis. Further, the corporate director of a retail CCIV must have a majority of “external” directors on its board – the alternative of the registered MIS “external” compliance committee is not available for corporate directors.

Where a CCIV sub-fund does not qualify as an AMIT, the investors are generally taxed on their share of the net income of the trust . If a CCIV sub-fund trust fails to meet the AMIT requirements due to temporary circumstances that are outside the control of the trust, it can continue to be treated as an AMIT in relation to the income year if it is ‘fair and reasonable’ to do so. In determining whether it is ‘fair and reasonable’ to do so, certain factors prescribed by the legislation must be considered by the trust. The CCIV will be treated for tax purposes as if it were a different tax entity in its capacity as trustee of each trust, with distinct responsibilities to meet the obligations of a trustee under the taxation law in respect of each CCIV sub-fund trust. A new development is that a CCIV may generally engage in cross-investment between its sub-funds, meaning a CCIV can, in respect of one sub-fund, acquire shares that are referable to another sub-fund.

An indication of interest to purchase securities involves no obligation or commitment of any kind. Rumors were swirling over the weekend that CCIV and Lucid Motors would be pushing the merger date up to the end of the second quarter. This would require a shareholder vote to take place in the near future, which may be enough of a catalyst to send the stock back into orbit. Despite all of the excitement, Lucid is still only expected to deliver about 500 total vehicles in 2021, so it has a long way to go before it can be considered a true rival to Tesla. Similarly, there is currently no stamp duty relief in any of the Australian States or Territories for the restructure of MISs into CCIVs, and no clear guidance about how CCIVs will be treated for stamp duty purposes. Although this is the province of the individual States of Territories, a lack of stamp duty relief will likely be prohibitive for certain existing fund managers looking restructure their funds into a CCIV.

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Like the responsible entity of a registered MIS, a corporate director of a CCIV may retire and be replaced in specified circumstances. The CCIV will provide an alternative to the existing managed investment scheme investment vehicle. You may use StockInvest.us and the contents contained in StockInvest.us solely for your own individual non-commercial and informational purposes only.

Although we don’t have a definitive merger date for the CCIV and Lucid Motors merger, it’s expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2021. While investors in some of the SPACs have been apprehensive of approving the mergers and SPACs like Tuscan Holdings had to delay the merger vote, I don’t see such a possibility in CCIV because the stock price is comfortably above $10. What happened was actually the contrary and the acquisition with CCIV valued Lucid Motors at $24 billion based on the PIPE in public equity at $15. As I noted in a previous article, CCIV stock might fall towards $15 before the merger with Lucid Motors.

The corporate director of a CCIV will provide a new type of financial service of “operates the business and conduct the affairs of the CCIV”. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. It is important to perform your own research before making any investment and take independent advice from a registered investment advisor. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned.

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 80% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction. Howard Smith owns shares of Churchill Capital Corp IV. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Tesla. It is noted that certain widely-criticised features of previous exposure drafts, including the administrative penalty on unders and overs, have been removed.

While the details of the 2021 Air deliveries remain hazy, shareholders have a clear view of the automaker’s financial future as a publicly traded company. A corporate director operating a CCIV can only “operate the business and conduct the affairs of the CCIV” if it is authorised to provide this new type of financial service under an AFSL. A single AFSL may cover operating the business and conducting the affairs of more than one CCIV.